The KellyOdds Daily: NBA, MLB Value Picks – 5/10/25

Hi everyone,

As of the time this newsletter was sent, the KellyOdds model has identified two moneyline value picks across various bookmakers for today’s games.

• MLB: Dodgers, Orioles

• NBA: n/a

Check out our Discord Server if you would like to receive additional updates throughout the day.

Good luck!

MLB

NBA

Get Access to Real-time Data

Keep in mind that odds and predictions change over time. The presented data in this newsletter was up to date at the time it was published. To get access to all odds data and picks in real-time, try KellyOdds for free for 7 days.

What’s Included?
✅ Real-time value picks and +EV odds across 20+ US, UK, and EU bookmakers
✅ Coverage for NFL, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, MMA, soccer & more
✅ Risk adjusted bet sizing based on predicted win probability & EV

How KellyOdds Works

+EV (positive expected value) betting is all about finding an edge. It happens when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the true fair odds that the KellyOdds model predicts—which means you’re getting better value than you should. Over time, this edge can lead to long-term profits.

The Key Concept: Available Odds Exceed Fair Odds

The fair odds (or true probability) represent the actual likelihood of an event happening. When a bookmaker misprices a bet—offering odds that are better than the fair odds—you’ve found a +EV opportunity. The KellyOdds model identifies significant +EV opportunities as Value Picks. Let’s say you’re betting on an NBA game, and the KellyOdds model predicts that:

• The true fair odds of a team winning are +200 (implying a 33.3% win probability).

• A bookmaker is offering +220 odds.

• At +220, the implied win probability is only 31.25%, which means the book is undervaluing the team’s chances.

• The more +EV bets you place, the more likely your long-term results will reflect your edge.

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